Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Agathe Germe  Matthieu Chevallier  David Salas y Mélia  Emilia Sanchez-Gomez  Christophe Cassou 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2519-2538

The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill.  相似文献   

Paleoclimate and Paleoenvironment of Gonghe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, During the Lastdeglacial: Weathering, Erosion and Vegetation Cover Affect Clay Mineral Formation     

SUN Qingfeng  Christophe COLIN 《《地质学报》英文版》2014,88(2):647-660

With the analysis of the sources and formation mechanism of the clay minerals in the sediment core from the Dalianhai lake in the Gonghe Basin,northeastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau,clay mineral composition proxies,grain-size and carbonate contents have been employed for high-resolution study in order to reconstruct East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） over the northeastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau during the lastdeglacial.The study also extended to establish a relationship between vegetation cover changes and erosion during the last 14.5 ka with pollen record and clay mineral proxies.Smectite/kaolinite and smectite/（illite＋chlorite） ratios allow us to assess hydrolysis conditions in lowlands and/or physical erosion process in highlands of the Gonghe Basin.Before 12.9 Cal ka BP,both mineralogical ratios show low values indicative of strong physical erosion in the basin with a dominant cold and dry phase.After 12.9 Cal ka BP,an increase in both mineralogical ratios indicates enhanced chemical weathering in the basin associated with a warm and humid climate.The beginning of Holocene is characterized by high smectite/（illite＋chlorite） and smectite/kaolinite ratios that is synchronous as with deposition of many peat laminae,implying the best warm and humid conditions specifically between 8.0 to 5.5 Cal ka BP.The time interval after 5.0 Cai ka BP is characterized by a return to high physical erosion and low chemical weathering with dry climate conditions in the basin.Comparing variations of clay mineral assemblages with previous pollen results,we observe a rapid response in terms of chemical weathering and physical erosion intensity to a modification of the vegetation cover in the basin.  相似文献   

Technical, financial and location criteria for the design of land application system treatment     

Juana María Sanz  Ángel de Miguel  Irene de Bustamante  Alberto de Tomás  José Luis Goy 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(1):13-21

Conventional water treatments when downsized to cover the demands of small and scattered populations are costly and ineffective. In fact, many small towns cannot afford the high average treatment costs nor provide the skill and complex management requirements. Even when these facilities are available, waste water might not be properly treated. Land application system treatments (LAST) have been shown to be preferable on the basis of their technical effectiveness and financial viability. The recently approved Spanish regulations (RDL 1620/2007, pp 50369–50661) represent an opportunity for the implementation of well-designed LASTs. This paper presents an assessment methodology for the design of LASTs by combining technical, financial and location criteria. The method is applied to the design of LASTs to cover the water disposal demand of twelve municipalities located within the protected natural landscape, and surrounding areas of ‘El Rebollar’, Salamanca, Spain.  相似文献   

Streamflow response to regional climate model output in the mountainous watershed: a case study from the Swiss Alps     

Kazi?RahmanEmail author  Christophe?Etienne  Ana?Gago-Silva  Chetan?Maringanti  Martin?Beniston  Anthony?Lehmann 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(11):4357-4369

Regional climate model (RCM) outputs are often used in hydrological modeling, in particular for streamflow forecasting. The heterogeneity of the meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and solar radiation often limits the ability of the hydrological model performance. This paper assessed the sensitivity of RCM outputs from the PRUDENCE project and their performance in reproducing the streamflow. The soil and water assessment tool was used to simulate the streamflow of the Rhone River watershed located in the southwestern part of Switzerland, with the climate variables obtained from four RCMs. We analyzed the difference in magnitude of precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed with respect to the observed values from the meteorological stations. In addition, we also focused on the impact of the grid resolution on model performance, by analyzing grids with resolutions of 50 × 50 and 25 × 25 km². The variability of the meteorological inputs from various RCMs is quite severe in the studied watershed. Among the four different RCMs, the Danish Meteorological Institute provided the best performance when simulating runoff. We found that temperature lapse rate is significantly important in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated watershed as compared to other variables like precipitation, and wind speed for hydrological performance. Therefore, emphasis should be given to minimum and maximum temperature in the bias correction studies for downscaling climatic data for impact modeling in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated complex watersheds.  相似文献   

Tectonics of an extinct ridge-transform intersection,Drake Passage (Antarctica)     

Maldonado  Andrés  Carlos Balanyá  Juan  Barnolas  Antonio  Galindo-Zaldívar  Jesús  Hernández  Javier  Jabaloy  Antonio  Livermore  Roy  Miguel Martínez-Martínez  José  Rodríguez-Fernández  José  Sanz de Galdeano  Carlos  Somoza  Luis  Suriñach  Emma  Viseras  César 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2000,21(1-2):43-68

New swath bathymetric, multichannel seismic and magnetic data reveal the complexity of the intersection between the extinct West Scotia Ridge (WSR) and the Shackleton Fracture Zone (SFZ), a first-order NW-SE trending high-relief ridge cutting across the Drake Passage. The SFZ is composed of shallow, ridge segments and depressions, largely parallel to the fracture zone with an `en echelon' pattern in plan view. These features are bounded by tectonic lineaments, interpreted as faults. The axial valley of the spreading center intersects the fracture zone in a complex area of deformation, where N120° E lineaments and E–W faults anastomose on both sides of the intersection. The fracture zone developed within an extensional regime, which facilitated the formation of oceanic transverse ridges parallel to the fracture zone and depressions attributed to pull-apart basins, bounded by normal and strike-slip faults.On the multichannel seismic (MCS) profiles, the igneous crust is well stratified, with numerous discontinuous high-amplitude reflectors and many irregular diffractions at the top, and a thicker layer below. The latter has sparse and weak reflectors, although it locally contains strong, dipping reflections. A bright, slightly undulating reflector observed below the spreading center axial valley at about 0.75 s (twt) depth in the igneous crust is interpreted as an indication of the relict axial magma chamber. Deep, high-amplitude subhorizontal and slightly dipping reflections are observed between 1.8 and 3.2 s (twt) below sea floor, but are preferentially located at about 2.8–3.0 s (twt) depth. Where these reflections are more continuous they may represent the Mohorovicic seismic discontinuity. More locally, short (2–3 km long), very high-amplitude reflections observed at 3.6 and 4.3 s (twt) depth below sea floor are attributed to an interlayered upper mantle transition zone. The MCS profiles also show a pattern of regularly spaced, steep-inclined reflectors, which cut across layers 2 and 3 of the oceanic crust. These reflectors are attributed to deformation under a transpressional regime that developed along the SFZ, shortly after spreading ceased at the WSR. Magnetic anomalies 5 to 5 E may be confidently identified on the flanks of the WSR. Our spreading model assumes slow rates (ca. 10–20 mm/yr), with slight asymmetries favoring the southeastern flank between 5C and 5, and the northwestern flank between 5 and extinction. The spreading rate asymmetry means that accretion was slower during formation of the steeper, shallower, southeastern flank than of the northwestern flank.  相似文献   

Low reproductive success for copepods during a bloom of the non‐aldehyde‐producing diatom Cerataulina pelagica in the North Adriatic Sea     

Adrianna Ianora  Raffaella Casotti  Mauro Bastianini  Christophe Brunet  Giuliana D’Ippolito  Francesco Acri  Angelo Fontana  Adele Cutignano  Jefferson T. Turner  Antonio Miralto 《Marine Ecology》2008,29(3):399-410

Egg production rates and/or hatching success in the copepods Acartia clausi, Calanus helgolandicus and Temora longicornis were negatively affected by a late spring (May–June 2003) phytoplankton bloom in the North Adriatic Sea, dominated mainly by the large diatom Cerataulina pelagica. Highest total concentrations of 3.3·10⁴ cells·ml^?1 were located in the vicinity of the Po River, which also corresponded to the area where the highest numbers of phaeophorbides were measured (0.779, 0.528 and 0.419 μg·l^?1, respectively, compared to an average of the remaining stations of 0.183 ± 0.049 SD), suggesting some grazing on the bloom. Phytoplankton biomass in terms of carbon was dominated by diatoms, representing on average 42% of total phytoplankton carbon and more than 80% at several stations. Cerataulina pelagica, Cyclotella spp., Chaetoceros spp. and small unidentified centric diatoms dominated the diatom community numerically but C. pelagica was by far the dominant diatom in terms of carbon due to its large cell size. This species represented more than 60% of the diatom biomass at nine of the 14 stations sampled, and was absent only at one station, which was the most offshore station sampled during the cruise. Although polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUAs) were not detected, other oxylipins which are hydroxy and keto derivatives of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids that affect copepod reproduction were found in these samples. Hence, we can attribute the negative impact of diatoms not only to PUAs, as previously believed, but also to these compounds. This is the first direct evidence of the presence of oxylipins other than PUAs in marine blooms dominated by diatoms.  相似文献   

The Sfax L6 chondrite: A new fall from Tunisia     

M. Amouri  N. Laridhi Ouazaa  M. Christophe Michel-Lvy  F. Rekhiss 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1991,26(1):11-12

Abstract— The Sfax meteorite fell on 16 October 1989. Four pieces totaling less than 10 kg were recovered from a much larger meteoroid, according to the cosmogenic gas measurements. It is an L6 chondrite, strongly degassed and shocked, with olivine of composition Fa24.  相似文献   

Orbital Elements of 2004 Perseid Meteoroids Perturbed by Jupiter     

Josep Maria Trigo-Rodriguez  Jeremie Vaubaillon  José Luís Ortiz  Alberto Castro-Tirado  Jordi Llorca  Esko Lyytinen  Martin Jelínek  Antonio de Ugarte Postigo  Pablo Santos Sanz  Francisco J. Aceituno Castro  Albert Sánchez Caso  Antonio Bernal González  Juan Pastor Erades  Francisco Ocaña 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2005,97(3-4):269-278

Jupiter and Saturn produce important gravitational impulses on meteoroids released by comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle. The meteoroids from this comet once released follow retrograde orbits that during their periodic approaches to these planets (within 1.6 and 0.9 A.U., respectively) are impulsed gaining orbital energy. This perturbation effect is translated into a net inward shift in the node of the perturbed meteoroids. Such geometry with Jupiter occurred in 2004 over a meteoroid trail ejected by this comet during the 1862 A.D. return of the comet to perihelion. In order to study the predicted outburst produced by one-revolution meteoroids, the Spanish Photographic Meteor Network (SPMN) performed an extensive campaign. As a part of this observational effort here are presented 10 accurate meteoroid orbits. We discuss their origin by comparing them with the theoretical orbital elements of the dust trails intercepting the Earth during the 2004 Perseid return.  相似文献   

Spectroscopic anatomy of a meteor trail cross section with the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope     

Peter Jenniskens  Emmanuel Jehin  Remi A. Cabanac  Christophe O. Laux  Iain D. Boyd 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2004,39(4):609-616

Abstract— A meteor spectrum was recorded serendipitously at the European Southern Obrervatory (ESO) Very Large Telescope (VLT) during a long exposure in long‐slit spectroscopic mode with FORS1. The ?8 magnitude fireball crossed the narrow 1Î × 7î slit during the observation of a high z supernova in normal service mode operation on May 12, 2002. The spectrum covered the range of 637–1050 nm, where the meteor's air plasma emissions from N₂, N, and O dominate. Carbon atom emission was not detected in the relatively unexplored wavelength range above 900 nm, but the observed upper limit was only 3 sigma less than expected from the dissociation of atmospheric CO₂. The meteor trail was resolved along the slit, and the emission had a Gaussian distribution with a dimension of FWHM = 7.0 (±0.4) * sin(α) * H (km)/90 m, where α is the unknown angle between the orientation of the meteor path and slit and H the assumed altitude of the meteor in km. To our knowledge, this is the first observation of a spatially resolved spectrum across a meteor trail. Unlike model predictions, the plasma excitation temperature varied only from about 4,300 to 4,365 K across the trail, based on the ratio of atomic and molecular nitrogen emissions. Unfortunately, we conclude that this was because the meteor at 100 km altitude was out of focus.  相似文献   

The Mexican hat wavelet family: application to point-source detection in cosmic microwave background maps     

J. González-Nuevo  F. Argüeso  M. López-Caniego  L. Toffolatti  J. L. Sanz  P. Vielva  D. Herranz 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,369(4):1603-1610

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